Is GOP Rep. Peter King going to lose?
Longtime Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) could be in danger of losing his re-election.
While the 13-term Republican representative is still the heavy favorite, election forecast website FiveThirtyEight lowered his odds of winning by about 10 points on Monday. Analyst Nate Silver chalked the shift up to good Democratic fundraising.
King's Democratic opponent, Liuba Grechen Shirley, raised more than King's last five opponents combined, The New York Times reported in August, and Grechen Shirley told Newsday in September that she outraised King by $25,000 in the last quarter.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Grechen Shirley now has a 26.9 percent chance of defeating King, based on FiveThirtyEight's model. For comparison, the same forecast gave President Trump a 28 percent chance of being elected in 2016.
This shift comes after the Cook Political Report moved King's seat from being "safe Republican" to "likely Republican" in September. The New York Times reported last month that Republican and Democratic strategists both felt King "might not be safe," especially after his district was redrawn in 2012 to include more registered Democrats than Republicans. Grechen Shirley, who has never held elected office, told the Times that she believes she can pull off an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-style upset.
Even if King does end up winning, as he is still likely to do, this could end up being the closest re-election of his career. FiveThirtyEight, after all, predicts he will receive 52 percent of the vote while Grechen Shirley will receive 48 percent. In 2016, King defeated his Democratic opponent by a margin of more than 20 points.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.
-
'The House under GOP rule has become a hostile workplace'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
The Shohei Ohtani gambling scandal is about more than bad bets
In The Spotlight The firestorm surrounding one of baseball's biggest stars threatens to upend a generational legacy and professional sports at large
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Feds raid Diddy homes in alleged sex trafficking case
Speed Read Homeland Security raided the properties of hip hop mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Puffed rice and yoga: inside the collapsed tunnel where Indian workers await rescue
Speed Read Workers trapped in collapsed tunnel are suffering from dysentery and anxiety over their rescue
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
More than 2,000 dead following massive earthquake in Morocco
Speed Read
By Justin Klawans Published
-
Mexico's next president will almost certainly be its 1st female president
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
North Korea's Kim to visit Putin in eastern Russia to discuss arms sales for Ukraine war, U.S. says
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
Gabon's military leader sworn in following coup in latest African uprising
Speed Read
By Justin Klawans Published
-
Nobody seems surprised Wagner's Prigozhin died under suspicious circumstances
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
Western mountain climbers allegedly left Pakistani porter to die on K2
Speed Read
By Justin Klawans Published
-
'Circular saw blades' divide controversial Rio Grande buoys installed by Texas governor
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published